Analysis of the relationship between seasonal drought and decreasing vegetation cover and its impact on the frequency of dust storms in Al-Muthanna Governorate during the period (1980-2025)

Abstract

Dust phenomena are climatic phenomena that have numerous adverse effects on the environment, economy, and human health. This study aims to investigate the relationship between the frequency of sandstorms, rising dust, and suspended dust and climatic factors, particularly during the dry and wet seasons. It also aims to analyze and assess the possibility of dust phenomena occurring in the study area and to examine the influence of climatic factors on their frequency.
The study adopted a descriptive-analytical approach based on data obtained from the Samawah meteorological station for the study period 1980–2025, in addition to data from the control stations of Najaf and Al-Diwaniyah. Remote sensing data related to vegetation cover, represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), were also used. The results demonstrated that climatic conditions influence the spatial distribution and frequency of dust phenomena. Correlation coefficients were employed to analyze the data, determine the direction and strength of the relationships between the studied phenomena and the independent climatic variables, and identify the climatic factors that have a greater influence on their occurrence.                                                 .
The correlation matrix revealed a strong positive relationship between wind speed and dust storms, with a correlation coefficient of (r = 0.79), which was stronger than its relationship with the other variables. Wind speed also showed positive correlations with rising dust (r = 0.72) and suspended dust (r = 0.61). In contrast, a strong negative correlation was observed between relative humidity and rainfall.

The study area was represented by Al-Muthanna Governorate, which is located in the southern part of Iraq. It is bordered to the north by Al-Qadisiyah Governorate, to the east by Basra and Dhi Qar Governorates, to the west by Najaf Governorate, and to the south by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Astronomically, it is located between latitudes (29°5) and (31°42) north and longitudes (43°50) and (46°32) east, as shown in map (1). The time period for dust phenomena was represented from (1980-2025) based on the climatic data of the Samawah station, the Najaf station, and Diwaniyah as control stations.