Anticipating Artificial Intelligence in the Kurdistan Region: A Theoretical Analysis from a Sociological Perspective.

Abstract

The world is currently undergoing a massive transformative wave in which Artificial Intelligence (AI) has emerged as the primary driver of change within governance structures and the international system. This technology has altered not only the operational mechanisms of institutions but also the logic of power and strategic competition among global poles. To analyze this transformation and map the future of the Kurdistan Region in light of this trend, this research employs a pluralistic epistemological approach, utilizing Morphological Analysis and the GBN (Global Business Network) model.

The central problem of the study focuses on the Kurdistan Region as a political and administrative entity facing a decisive question: Is the Region at risk of "Technological Dependency," or can it emerge as a proactive national actor? The challenge lies in the Region's current lack of preparedness regarding technological infrastructure, legal frameworks, and strategic vision, which poses a significant threat to its digital sovereignty.

The findings indicate that the global rivalry between the United States and China has forged a "networked bipolar" structure, where data security and the securitization of the digital sphere have become paramount priorities. Furthermore, the research concludes that the new hierarchy of power is positioning tech giants above traditional governments. For the Kurdistan Region, the "Civilizational Decoupling" scenario is identified as the most viable path for preserving political independence, provided that an "Antifragility" strategy—turning threats into opportunities and thriving amidst crisis—is adopted to balance technological advancement with the protection of national sovereignty. By integrating AI with Future Studies and employing a pluralistic methodology, this research offers a comprehensive analysis that transcends the narrow technical or political lenses prevalent in previous literature.