The Impact of Temperature on the Spatial Variability of Snowfall in a Mountainous Region of Duhok Governorate (2000-2024)

Abstract

Temperature is considered one of the main factors that has a significant influence on precipitation patterns, particularly in mountainous regions, as snowfall requires temperatures to reach specific levels and often to fall below the freezing point. The results of the analysis of climatic elements during the period (2000–2024) indicate a general upward trend in the annual average temperatures in the mountainous areas of Duhok Governorate. This increase has had a direct impact on precipitation patterns. Rising temperatures reflect changes occurring on the Earth’s surface, which in turn directly affect snow-covered areas, leading to a reduction in snow accumulation at lower elevations. Consequently, this has contributed to a decrease in spatial variability between mountainous areas compared to the early years of the study period. These findings indicate a clear inverse relationship between temperature and the area, thickness, and amount of snowfall.

Temperature is one of the climatic elements experiencing a continuous upward trend, making it one of the major environmental challenges facing natural ecosystems. It has also gained considerable global attention within the context of climate change studies due to its close association with global warming. These changes have been linked to a decline in snowfall rates worldwide, particularly in mountainous regions, where their impacts and characteristics have become increasingly evident.

In this study, the changes in snow cover in the mountainous areas of Duhok Governorate were monitored and analyzed using remote sensing data and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. The aim was to identify the changes in snow-covered areas within the study region during the period (2000–2024), predict future trends of these changes, and determine the most important factors influencing snow cover variability. The results show that in the year 2000, the snow-covered area in the region reached approximately (1,377.2 km²), with an average temperature of (28.2 °C) in the mountainous areas. By 2024, the snow-covered area had declined to about (203.07 km²), while the average temperature increased to (32.1 °C).