John J. Mearsheimer, “Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order”, International Security, Vol. 43, No. 4, 2019, pp. 7–50.

Abstract

Since the end of the Cold War, international relations have witnessed a profound structural transformation in the nature of the international system. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the United States as the dominant power marked the beginning of a new era characterized by the expansion of liberal international institutions, the spread of democratic values ​​and market economies, and a growing belief in the possibility of building an international system based on rules and institutions rather than the traditional balance of power. However, this vision has begun to face mounting challenges with the resurgence of great power competition, the rise of China as a strategic competitor to the United States, and increasing skepticism about the ability of liberal institutions to manage the structural transformations in the international system.

John Mearsheimer’s article, “Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order,” published in the journal International Security in 2019, stands as a pivotal theoretical contribution to the contemporary debate on the future of the international system. Mearsheimer, starting from an offensive realist perspective, argues that the liberal international order was linked to exceptional historical circumstances—namely, the post-Cold War dominance of the United States—and was not a sustainable long-term project. He contends that attempts to generalize this order outside its natural structural environment contributed to its inherent contradictions.

The significance of this article lies in its revisiting a fundamental question in international relations concerning the source of order and stability in global politics, a question that transcends the analysis of a single state's policies: Do international rules and institutions arise as independent forces capable of regulating state behavior, or do they remain a direct reflection of the distribution of power among international actors?

This review aims to analyze Mearsheimer's central thesis by placing it within the theoretical framework of offensive realism, comparing it with competing approaches in international relations, and assessing its explanatory power in light of ongoing transformations in the international system. It also seeks to highlight the article's scholarly value and the limitations of its thesis, particularly in the context of the shift toward an international environment characterized by escalating great-power competition. This review adopts a critical analytical approach based on deconstructing the argumentative structure of the article and linking it to the established theoretical literature in international relations, while testing the consistency of its assumptions with actual developments in global politics.