Motives and repercussions of the Turkish-Israeli conflict in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime

Abstract

focus on their evolving interactions in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime in 2024. Since Turkey’s recognition of Israel in 1949, bilateral relations have developed across political, economic, and military dimensions, despite intermittent tensions related to regional conflicts and minority issues. The collapse of Assad’s government created a strategic vacuum, allowing both Turkey and Israel to advance their respective interests in northern and southern Syria. Turkey’s objectives have centered on preventing the establishment of a contiguous Kurdish entity along its borders, expanding its influence through support for selected armed groups, and managing the refugee crisis. Conversely, Israel has focused on safeguarding its national security by countering Iranian and Hezbollah influence, securing strategic military positions, and supporting local minorities such as the Druze. The study identifies ongoing points of tension and outlines potential future scenarios ranging from limited dialogue and pragmatic coordination to indirect escalation or territorial influence shifts. The findings underscore the importance of diplomatic engagement, coordinated security efforts, and inclusive political solutions in mitigating conflict and promoting regional stability.

The study of Turkish-Israeli relations shows that this relationship began since Turkey's recognition of Israel in 1949, and witnessed development in the political, economic and military fields, such as the signing of the military cooperation agreement in 1996, despite some historical tensions related to Israel's support for the Kurds and crises such as the Suez crisis. After the fall of the Assad regime in 2024, Syria witnessed strategic changes, giving both Turkey and Israel the opportunity to strengthen their influence; Turkey's efforts to control the north of Syria and prevent the rise of a Kurdish entity adjacent to the borders, as well as its aim to support Islamic factions and create conditions for the return of refugees, while Israel focused on protecting national security by confronting the influence of Iran and Hezbollah, supporting minorities such as the Druze, and continuing pre-emptive airstrikes against strategic military situations.