The impact of weather patterns on violent crime in the Garmian region, Iraqi Kurdistan

Abstract

This study aimed to statistically analyze the impact of climate on the rate of violent crime in the Garmian region, Iraqi Kurdistan. For this purpose, data related to climatic variables (temperature and rainfall) and recorded crimes during 2024 were analyzed. According to the results, the increase in temperature during the hot months of the year caused a significant increase in violent crimes (intimidation, sexual assault, corruption, and assault), and in contrast, rainfall shocks in the form of drought significantly increased the rate of these crimes. The high coefficients of determination (R²) for the temperature variable indicate its strong effect on violent behavior. The findings of the present study appear to be consistent with previous literature on expectations that human behavior changes in hot weather and that aggression levels are likely to increase with temperature. Therefore, it is recommended that law enforcement and social institutions implement special monitoring and educational programs during the hot months of the year to reduce and control violent crimes. In urban planning, creating cool, shaded public spaces and better access to amenities in the summer can be effective in reducing aggression and urban conflicts. Future research could provide more detailed statistical analyses of the relationship between climate and crime using multi-year data and psychological or economic variables.