Spatiotemporal Analysis of Landscape Degradation Due to Drought in Duhok and Semel Districts for the Period 2004–2024

Abstract

 Prolonged drought and increasing climate variability have led to significant environmental stress in arid and semi-arid regions. These conditions have contributed to widespread landscape degradation, particularly in the form of vegetation loss and water scarcity. Duhok and Semel Districts, known for their agricultural value and ecological and aesthetic importance, have experienced noticeable environmental changes over the past two decades. Vegetation and water were selected as primary indicators of degradation because they are the most visibly affected and aesthetically significant components of the landscape.

This study examined the extent and spatial patterns of drought-induced degradation in the study area from 2004 to 2024. A spatiotemporal approach was applied using remote sensing indices, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), to monitor changes in vegetation cover and surface water. Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) classification and Digital Elevation Model (DEM)-based analysis were used to assess the influence of elevation, slope, and aspect on degradation patterns.

Climatic variables such as precipitation and temperature were analyzed alongside agricultural and water resource data obtained from governmental directorates. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to evaluate drought frequency and duration. Field surveys and key informant interviews were conducted to support and validate the remote sensing findings. Correlation and regression analyses were applied to explore the relationship between vegetation indices and climatic variables.

The results showed a consistent decline in vegetation and water availability, especially during years of prolonged drought. Degradation severity varied across topographic conditions and land use types, with flat and plain areas showed greater vulnerability. The findings addressed the research objectives by identifying spatial degradation trends, drought-prone zones, and the environmental factors influencing vulnerability. The results provided a scientific basis for potential strategies to mitigate and restore degraded landscapes based on the observed patterns.