Spatial Variation of the Age and Gender Composition of the Population in the Governorates of Southern Iraq and its Relationship with the Dependency Ratio for the Period (2000–2025)

Abstract

This study analyzed the spatial variation in the age and gender composition of the population and their relationship to dependency ratios in the southern Iraqi region (Basra, Dhi Qar, Maysan, Muthanna, and Qadisiyah) during the period 2000–2025. The study employed a descriptive-analytical and comparative methodology, relying on spatial-demographic data.

The study concluded that the region's units have entered a "demographic dividend" phase, with the average working-age population (15–64 years) exceeding 58.91%. The results revealed a sharp spatial variation in overall dependency ratios. The highest values were recorded in the rural, emigration-prone environment of Maysan Governorate (76 dependents per 100 working-age individuals), while the ratios were lower in Qadisiyah (66) and Basra (68) Governorates, reflecting the differences in the economic and social characteristics of each location.  The study revealed that the geographical distribution of the gender composition is affected by internal migration driven by environmental and economic factors. The gender ratio in the urban center of attraction (Basra) reached 103 males per 100 females, while it was skewed in the emigration-draining areas. Statistical analysis also demonstrated a strong positive correlation between the size of the young adult population and the total dependency ratio, while the elderly dependency ratio exhibited low spatial stability, fluctuating between 5 and 6.

Based on these findings, the study recommended adopting a decentralized spatial planning policy and employing the surplus young population in alternative industrial and agricultural sectors to the oil sector. It also recommended urgent environmental intervention in the emigration-draining governorates to curb irregular environmental migration patterns.