Temporal Trend Analysis of Rainfall Variability in Maysan Governorate Using Climate Change Equations

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze the temporal trend of rainfall variability in Maysan Governorate in southern Iraq in order to reveal the nature of climatic transformations during the study period and assess the impact of climate change on precipitation variability in semi-arid environments. The study relies on analyzing annual rainfall time-series data recorded at the meteorological station using quantitative statistical methods to determine the true trend of change and reduce the effect of random fluctuations in climatic data.

The results showed a statistically significant general declining trend in annual rainfall amounts, indicating a clear shift toward more arid climatic conditions during the study years. The analysis also revealed that rainfall variability was unstable between years, as some periods recorded sharp fluctuations in precipitation rates, reflecting the influence of regional and global climatic transformations on the local climate system.

This declining trend is associated with rising surface temperatures, increased evaporation rates, and changes in atmospheric pressure systems affecting the region, in addition to the impacts of global warming. The reduction in rainfall represents an important indicator of increasing drought risks and declining efficiency of surface and groundwater resources, which may negatively affect the sustainability of agricultural and environmental activities in the governorate in the future.

The study recommends strengthening climate adaptation strategies and developing sustainable water management systems to support environmental development planning in the region