Climatic Potentials for Walnut Production in the Hawraman Region

Abstract

The research discusses the climatic potentials for walnut production in the Hawraman region, located in northeastern Iraq, northeastern Kurdistan Region, and eastern and northeastern Halabja Governorate. The objective of this study is to determine the impact of climatic elements on the quantity of walnut yield in the Hawraman region. The study relies on recorded data from meteorological stations in the study area (Halabja, Khurmal, Biyara, Tawela) and satellite data obtained from (NASA) between the years (2004-2023). Additionally, it utilized questionnaire forms to collect data and information on walnut yield quantities and to identify insects and diseases in the region for the years (2020, 2021, 2022, 2023). Relying on the deductive approach, topical and analytical methods, as well as the Pearson correlation coefficient, and simple and multiple regression to predict the quantity of walnut yield using the (SPSS 27) software, the research reached several conclusions. The most important of these is that an increase of (1) hour of actual sunshine in the months of (April, May) [X3, X4] in the Tawela and Khurmal areas leads to an increase in yield in Tawela by (32,404.8 ; 23,237.4) nuts, and in Khurmal by (1,002.3 ; 20,281.9) nuts. Furthermore, an increase of (1°C) in the average, average maximum, and average minimum temperatures in May [X14, X24, X34] in the Tawela and Biyara areas leads to a yield increase in Tawela by (10,689.3 ; 6,790.9 ; 8,782.5) nuts and in Biyara by (92,867.0 ; 110,593.0 ; 105,497.2) nuts. Conversely, an increase of (1°C) in the average, average maximum, and average minimum temperatures in August and September [(X17, X27, X37), (X18, X28, X38)] leads to a decrease in yield in Tawela by (38,243.2 ; 45,730.7 ; 48,125.8) and (20,991.5 ; 23,800.6 ; 28,873.8) nuts, and in Biyara by (223,069.8 ; 479,963.3 ; 399,596.1) and (370,042.4 ; 479,963.3 ; 363,341.9) nuts. Among the most widespread diseases and pests affecting walnut trees in the study area, walnut bark canker ranks first at a rate of (47.9%), followed by the stem borer worm in second place at (28.1%).