"The Impact of Affective Forecasting on Social Inhibition among a Sample of Postgraduate Students"

Abstract

The present study aims to investigate the causal relationship between affective forecasting and social inhibition among postgraduate students, by examining whether negative affective forecasting contributes to increased social inhibition in evaluative situations. A quasi-experimental design was applied to a sample of 22 master's students at Al-Mustansiriya University. Participants were asked to deliver an academic lecture in two conditions: in front of specialized professors (high-threat condition) and in front of first-year students (low-threat condition).

Results, analysed using McNemar’s test, revealed statistically significant differences between the two conditions. Acceptance rates for the task were lower in the high-threat condition, indicating that negative affective forecasting activated social inhibition responses. Additionally, analysis of extreme responses showed that nearly half of the participants exhibited polarized patterns of acceptance or rejection, reflecting the influence of emotional expectations on decision-making and social behaviors.

The findings highlight the critical role of affective forecasting in shaping social responses and suggest that the accuracy of emotional predictions contributes to better adaptation and reduces avoidance or withdrawal behaviors in socially evaluative contexts.