Food Security in Iraq Amid Economic Exposure and Structural Imbalances in the Structure of Gross Domestic Product for the Years (2023-2024 )

Abstract

Iraq possesses extensive potential for economic diversification; however, the dominance of oil production in the structure of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has deepened food dependency. The importance of this study stems from Iraq’s weak non-oil productive base, and it is highlighted by examining the GDP structure and measuring the degree of economic exposure.

The study adopted a descriptive-analytical and quantitative methodology and reached several findings, including a structural imbalance in the GDP composition, a high degree of economic exposure, and the disintegration of productive linkages between economic sectors. The study’s recommendations include reconsidering the GDP structure, increasing the contribution of agriculture and the very weak industrial sector, and supporting productive activities capable of achieving self-sufficiency in their products.

The oil sector dominates the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), accounting for 42% in 2023 and 37% in 2024. Meanwhile, the contribution of productive sectors—namely agriculture and industry—remains weak, totaling only about 7% combined. In the Iraqi context, the "economic exposure" indicator loses its explanatory power due to structural distortions in the GDP, characterized by the dominance of oil and consumption-oriented sectors, alongside weak forward and backward linkages across the economy—a condition that defines an economy with fragmented productive ties. Furthermore, the significant surge in table egg production figures between 2021 and 2023 does not reflect a genuine recovery in domestic output; rather, it indicates that imported goods are being conflated with domestic production, a consequence of the absence of regulatory oversight and protective policies.