The concept of political crises, their stages of development, and their types

Abstract

This research aims to study the concept of political crises, their stages of development, and their types as a pivotal phenomenon in political science and international relations. The importance of this study stems from the accelerating pace of contemporary geopolitical transformations, which necessitate a deep understanding of the nature of crises and how they form in order to prevent their escalation into armed conflicts or institutional collapses. The study adopts a descriptive-analytical approach to deconstruct the dimensions of the phenomenon and trace its historical and structural trajectories. The first section of the research addresses the definition of a political crisis, concluding that it is a critical turning point characterized by ambiguity, complexity, and limited time available for decision-making, thus threatening the vital interests of the state or political system. In the second section, the stages of crisis development were traced through five main phases, beginning with the emergence or inception phase where the first indicators appear, followed by the growth and expansion phase, then the peak phase where tension reaches its maximum, leading to the decline and contraction phase, and finally the phase of crisis dissipation or adaptation to its ongoing effects. In the third section, the research classified political crises according to several criteria, including internal crises (such as coups and protests) and external crises (such as border and diplomatic disputes), in addition to classifying them according to their severity into violent and non-violent crises. The study reached a number of conclusions, most notably that political crises are not entirely sudden events, but rather the product of accumulations that can be predicted and managed through early warning strategies. The study recommends the necessity of activating future forecasting centers and supporting decision-makers with flexible mechanisms capable of containing crises in their early stages to reduce their political and security costs.