A Geographical Analysis of Rainfall Variability and its Impact on the Spatiotemporal Changes of Cultivated Areas in the Mountainous and Semi-Mountainous Region of Erbil Governorate Using (RS) Techniques.

Abstract

The aim of this study is to conduct a geographic analysis of rainfall variability )  both increases and decreases ( and its effects on the spatial and temporal changes in cultivated areas across mountainous and semi-mountainous regions of Erbil Governorate between 2017 and 2024. Rainfall is one of the key natural factors that directly and significantly impacts the timing and location of agricultural activity, especially in ecologically sensitive mountainous regions , where agricultural production heavily depends on rainfall, both in terms of quantity and how it is distributed over time and space. This study uses the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) as a primary scientific tool to assess and identify periods of drought and wet conditions, and to analyse the resulting differences in cultivated land over time and across different areas.

The results of the study reveal that  significant changes have occurred in cultivated areas, depending on rainfall patterns from one location to another. During wetter periods, cultivated land reached 12000 hectares . In contrast , during normal  periods , the area decreased to around 8000 hectares . However , during dry periods , the cultivated area clearly shrank by approximately 2500 hectares  a 20.8% reduction compared to wetter periods, when cultivated land covered  79.2% of the maximum observed area .

These findings clearly demonstrate the influence of rainfall variability on agricultural land use. Moreover, the study provides detailed spatial mapping of the cultivated area changes, which may provide valuable insights for relevant stakeholders and decision-makers in designing appropriate strategies to manage and adapt to changing rainfall conditions.